2013年第1期（总第292期）

基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的中国经济波动分析                 郭立甫   姚 坚   高铁梅/3

从人口因素看中国经济未来20年的潜在增长速度                    刘熀松/13

印度金融发展规模、结构、效率与经济增长关系研究

                ——基于该国金融改革20年的数据分析    张自力 丘书俊/22

财政分权背景下地方政府科技支出行为研究                  潘 镇  金中坤  徐伟/34

公共支出归宿研究文献综述                                      许建标  丛树海  汪崇金/46

半强制分红政策对上市公司现金分红策略的影响研究                李慧/56

长三角产业和企业对金融与信息因素敏感度比较              丁剑平 王婧婧 王松华/64

海外温州人经济崛起的融资机制

       —— 纽约温州人标会现象研究                    朱康对/72

清代上海十六铺的华商活动与商业变迁                             王萌/80

基于产业部门的上海居民消费支出参数估计与分析                   刘兰娟   王军/90

产业结构调整、劳动力跨区域流动和集聚效应                       谢露露/99

贸易自由化政策与产业经济安全研究                        周新苗  冷军/107

国际贸易、环境规制与中国的技术创新                             郭艳  张群  吴石磊/122

科技推动农业产业化作用分析                                     王可侠  申松林/130          

contents

China’s Economic Fluctuation: An Analysis Based on the New Keynesian DSGE Model  Guo Li-fu   Yao Jian   Gao Tie-mei/

China’s Potential Economic Growth Rate in the Next 20 Years Based on the Analyze of Demographic Factors   Liu Huang-song                        

Empirical Study of Relationship Between Indian Financial scale Development、structure、efficiency and the Economics Growth——Based on the Data Analysis of 20 Years India Financial Reform     Zhang Zi-li  Qiu Shu-jun/

Local Government’s S&T Expenditure Behavior in the Fiscal Decentralization Context   Pan Zhen  Jin Zhong-kun  Xu Wei/

Review of the Research on Public Expenditure Incidence    Xu Jian-biao  Cong Shu-hai  Wang Chong-jin/

A Study of the Semi-mandatory DividendsRegulationEffect on Dividend Policy of Listed Companies   Li Hui/

Comparison of Sensitivity by the Firms and Industries in the Yangtze River Delta towards Finance and Information  Ding Jian-ping  Wang Jing-jing  Wang Song-hua/

Fund Rising Mechanism for the Economical Rising of Overseas Wenzhou Immigrants ——Research on Bidding ROSCAS among Wenzhou Immigrants in New York      Zhu Kang-dui/

The merchant’s activity and the commercial transition of Shiliupu district in Shanghai during the Qing Dynasty  Wang Meng/

Estimation and Analysis of Parameters in Expenditure Function in Shanghai Based on Industries  Liu Lan-juan  Wang Jun/

Industrial Restructuring, Inter-regional Labor Mobility and Agglomeration Effect  Xie Lu-lu/

A theoretical Study on Trade Integration policies and Economic Security  Zhou Xin-miao    Leng Jun/

International Trade，Environmental Regulation and Technological Innovation in China  Guo Yan  Zhang Qun  Wu Shi-lei/